As you know, we run four restrictor-plate races a year with two at Daytona and two at Talladega. This weekend's race at Daytona is probably the most challenging of the four.
I think this is the race where you walk the fine line the most between having a fast racecar and having a good-driving racecar. Sometimes it is hard to have both. If you make one drive better, sometimes it slows it down. If you make one faster, sometimes it drives worse.
The track Saturday night will be hot and slick, even though the race is at night. Whoever gets to pull into Victory Lane will probably be bragging to the media about how well their car drove. Obviously if we have a late caution, which we tend to have there, it's going to be very interesting because the double-file restart has never been tried there. Remember that the leader can choose what lane he wants. He's the only one who is allowed to do that.
Late in the race, it's all up to that driver. It's up to him to pick the right lane, the right spot and the right place to be on the last lap and maybe even on the last corner of the last lap as we have seen before at these restrictor-plate races. With nine races to go, including Daytona, I am not sure I can say that Saturday night will clearly define who the real players are for the top 12 spots in the Chase. We still have another road course, plus two short tracks in Bristol and Richmond. If you took the drivers that are currently sixth through 14th in the points and offered them a top-10 finish without even running the race, you'd see 90 to 100 percent of them take that deal.
They would accept it for two reasons. As you hear me preach all the time, restrictor-plate races are the wild-card races. You could have the best strategy, the best-running race car, the best pit stops all year. But if your driver is in the wrong spot or picks the wrong lane when taking the white flag, well, you can go from a top-10 finish to maybe finishing in the top 20 in only one lap. You really don't control your own destiny at tracks like this as you do at the others.
And after the race, we can all fuss about our favorite driver possibly picking the wrong lane or picking the wrong spot, but you have to remember that he is making that decision in a split second going about 190 mph. Sure it sounds and looks simple, but trust me, I am not sure I would want to be put in position to make that choice.
The points back to the 14th position are as tight as they have ever been. I still believe it's going to be like that right up to the checkered flag in Richmond in September, which will set the top 12 for the Chase. Those guys who are fighting for those slots have to be aggressively conservative. I know that doesn't sound right, but it is the truth. You have to pick and choose your battles. You've got to be smart.
Look at what the No. 20 car and the No. 09 car did Sunday at Loudon. Their decisions were a no-brainer. Neither team really had anything to lose, so they rolled the dice and look what happened. The rains came and the No. 20 won the race on strategy. Sunday also was clear proof that NASCAR is a team sport. The headlines say that Logano won, but it was the team and especially the veteran crew chief, Greg Zipadelli, that won that race. They won it as a team.
Larry Mac
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